Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

PC

PROTHENA CORP PUBLIC LTD CO (PRTA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered a wider-than-expected loss and materially lower revenue vs consensus; total revenue was $2.83M and GAAP EPS was -$1.12 vs S&P Global consensus of $8.18M and -$1.02, respectively; both metrics missed expectations, reflecting limited collaboration revenue recognition in the quarter *.
  • Operating discipline improved year over year: R&D fell to $50.8M (from $64.1M) and net loss narrowed to $60.2M (from $72.2M) on Q1 2024, driven primarily by lower clinical trial and manufacturing costs .
  • Guidance was maintained: 2025 net cash used in operating and investing activities of $168–$175M and year-end cash of ~$301M (midpoint), supported by $418.8M quarter-end cash and no debt .
  • Key pipeline catalysts highlighted for 2025 (at Q1 report) included PRX012 Phase 1 ASCENT readouts starting mid-2025 and birtamimab Phase 3 AFFIRM-AL topline in 2Q 2025; notably, post-quarter, AFFIRM-AL failed and birtamimab was discontinued (material to stock narrative and forward estimates) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Cost control: R&D declined to $50.8M (vs $64.1M LY) with management citing lower clinical trial and manufacturing costs; net loss improved year over year to $60.2M (vs $72.2M) .
  • Balance sheet strength: Quarter-end cash and restricted cash were $418.8M with no debt, providing runway to 2025 readouts .
  • Pipeline momentum: Multiple PRX012 ASCENT readouts expected starting mid-2025; partner updates (prasinezumab PADOVA suggested possible benefit in early-stage PD; Novo Nordisk coramitug Phase 2 data expected in 2H 2025) .
    • “We also anticipate multiple clinical readouts starting around mid-2025 and continuing throughout the year from the ongoing Phase 1 ASCENT clinical trials in patients with early Alzheimer’s disease for PRX012.” – CEO Gene Kinney .

What Went Wrong

  • Missed estimates: Revenue ($2.83M) and EPS (-$1.12) missed S&P Global consensus ($8.18M revenue; -$1.02 EPS), reflecting lighter collaboration revenue recognition in the period *.
  • Limited top-line diversity: Revenue remained almost entirely collaboration-based (BMS PRX019-related services); no product revenue to offset Opex .
  • Subsequent shock: On May 23, 2025, birtamimab’s Phase 3 AFFIRM-AL failed its primary endpoint (HR=0.915; p=0.7680) and all secondary endpoints; the program was discontinued, implying a material change to the medium-term commercial path and OpEx plans .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Cash (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenue ($M)$0.97 $2.12 $2.83
Loss from Operations ($M)$(66.51) $(64.90) $(65.58)
Other Income, net ($M)$6.68 $5.40 $4.21
Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(59.00) $(57.96) $(60.20)
GAAP EPS ($)$(1.10) $(1.08) $(1.12)
R&D Expense ($M)$50.72 $50.17 $50.81
G&A Expense ($M)$16.76 $16.85 $17.60
Total Operating Expenses ($M)$67.48 $67.02 $68.41
Cash & Restricted Cash ($M, end)$520.10 $472.25 $418.80

Notes: Q4 2024 cash and restricted cash were $472.2M per period-end disclosure . Q1 2025 cash and restricted cash were $418.8M; no debt .

Estimate Comparison (S&P Global; current quarter)

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($)$8,178,570*$2,828,000
GAAP EPS ($)-$1.023*-$1.12

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global; no company document citation is available.

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Non-cash Share-based Compensation ($M)$11.0 $10.5 $10.9
Shares Outstanding (approx., date noted)—53.8M (Feb 13, 2025) 53.8M (May 1, 2025)

Segment breakdown: Not applicable; Q1 revenue primarily collaboration revenue from Bristol Myers Squibb related to PRX019 Phase 1 obligations .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance (Q1)Change
Net cash used in operating & investing activitiesFY 2025$168–$175M $168–$175M Maintained
Year-end cash (cash, cash equivalents & restricted)FY 2025~$301M (midpoint) ~$301M (midpoint) Maintained
Estimated net lossFY 2025$197–$205M $197–$205M Maintained
Non-cash SBCFY 2025~$41M ~$41M Maintained

Subsequent update (post-quarter): On June 18, 2025, after discontinuing birtamimab and announcing a ~63% workforce reduction, guidance was revised to net cash burn $170–$178M (year-end cash ~$298M midpoint) and estimated net loss $240–$248M including ~$36M SBC and a $45M non-cash tax expense tied to a full U.S. DTA valuation allowance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: The company did not host a Q1 2025 conference call (“will not be conducting a conference call”) . Themes below compare Q-2 (Q3 2024) and Q-1 (Q4 2024) to the current period (Q1 2025 press release).

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q4 2024 call)Current Period (Q1 2025 PR)Trend
Birtamimab AFFIRM-ALPhase 3 confirmatory trial under SPA; topline 1H25 SPA success threshold p≤0.10; median survival context; dara’s limited early impact discussed Topline data expected 2Q25 Pre-Q1: rising expectations; Post-Q1: program failed and discontinued
PRX012 (Alzheimer’s)Multiple ASCENT readouts starting mid-2025 Detailed cohort design and objectives; at-home, monthly SC profile stressed Multiple readouts starting mid-2025; ~260 pts enrolled Consistent execution; key 2025 catalyst
Prasinezumab (PD; Roche)PASADENA OLE suggests reduced progression; PADOVA topline awaited PADOVA showed possible clinical effect; further evaluation with authorities AD/PD 2025 presentations suggest possible benefit; MRI biomarker effect Strengthening partner narrative
Coramitug (ATTR-CM; Novo)Phase 2 signal-detection trial; results 1H25 expected Phase 2 to complete in 1H25; results 2H25 Phase 2 completed enrollment; results expected in 2H25 On track with external catalyst
PRX019 (BMS)Phase 1 initiated BMS paid $80M; Phase 1 underway Phase 1 FIH trial underway; completion 2026 Program advancing

Management Commentary

  • “We continue to meaningfully advance our wholly-owned and partnered programs… We also anticipate multiple clinical readouts starting around mid-2025 and continuing throughout the year from the ongoing Phase 1 ASCENT clinical trials in patients with early Alzheimer’s disease for PRX012.” – Gene Kinney, CEO .
  • “Topline results expected in 2Q 2025 from the confirmatory Phase 3 AFFIRM-AL clinical trial of birtamimab…” .
  • “Results from the Phase 2b PADOVA clinical trial of prasinezumab… suggest a possible benefit in early-stage Parkinson’s disease…” .
  • “As of March 31, 2025, Prothena had $418.8 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, and no debt.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 call was held (“will not be conducting a conference call” for Q1 release) .
  • Select relevant themes from Q4 2024 Q&A:
    • AFFIRM-AL success threshold and baseline characteristics: SPA defines success at p≤0.10; ~80% of AFFIRM-AL subjects on daratumumab; control behavior expectations anchored to VITAL .
    • Commercial opportunity in AL amyloidosis: concentrated prescriber base; Mayo Stage IV ≈5,000 U.S. diagnosed/treated patients; management had outlined blockbuster potential if positive .
    • PRX012 clinical design and data rollout: initial “A” cohort data mid-2025; expansion cohort rationale and APOE subgrouping detailed .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results missed S&P Global consensus: Revenue $2.83M vs $8.18M consensus; GAAP EPS -$1.12 vs -$1.02 consensus *.
  • With birtamimab discontinued post-quarter, street models will likely remove commercial contribution and reduce 2026–2028 revenue/EBIT expectations, partially offset by optionality around PRX012, partner milestones, and OpEx resets reflected in the June restructuring .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q1 2025 was operationally tighter (lower R&D YoY) but financially soft vs consensus due to low collaboration revenue; valuation sensitivity shifts from birtamimab to PRX012 and partnered programs post-quarter .
  • Guidance was maintained at Q1 (cash burn $168–$175M; year-end cash ~$301M), indicating runway to 2025 catalysts; however, post-quarter restructuring revised 2025 loss higher and year-end cash slightly lower, reflecting birtamimab discontinuation costs and tax valuation allowance .
  • The portfolio focus tilts toward Alzheimer’s (PRX012) where mid-2025 and subsequent readouts are the next stock catalysts; commercial thesis now depends more on AD programs and partner updates (prasinezumab, coramitug, PRX019, BMS-986446) .
  • Expect estimate resets to remove birtamimab revenues and to reflect reduced OpEx run-rate over time post-restructuring; monitor for any 2026 milestone receipts that could bridge cash needs .
  • Near-term trading setup: limited top-line drivers until PRX012 data; subsequent volatility tied to AD readouts and partner disclosures (Roche/Novo/BMS) .

Footnote: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global (consensus/estimates).